Lectures 25-27 - Populations and Demography

20-24 March, 2000

I.           Introduction

Demographics is:

                        age composition  (Change in font courtesy of some Microsoft gremlin who won't go away!)

                        reproductive output

                        mortality

              What are links between parental effort and lifespan?

              The variables:

                        age at first reproduction

                        number of young fledged

                        what about number of eggs?

                        survivorship of young

                                    weight at fledging strongly predicts recapture in study by Perrins                                  

                        longevity

              Definitions:

                        survivorship is probability of making it to age x (sx)

                        fecundity = # young female young fledged/female/years

II.         Life History Patterns

Mortality highest in 1st year

Reproductive success and effort improve with age

            Long-lived species have low fecundity and vice versa

            These patterns consistently vary with environment

                         clutches in N & arid environments > vice versa

              Sparrows breed at 1 yr and breed annually with high fecundity

              Wandering Albatross

                         breeds at age 8-11

                         1 chick

                         every other year

                         breed for 50 yrs

III.        Life Tables

              Fecundity and survival are age specific

                         based on females only

                         can predict population growth

                         show which stages are most susceptible to change/conservation

                        Sx = survival rate at yr x

                        Lx = probability of surviving to age x (= product sum Sx’s)

                        Lx  can be calculated from Sx and vice versa.

                        Bx = annual fecundity (#female offspring)

                        LxBx = expected production in year x

                        Sum LxBx = Ro net (lifetime) reproductive rate

 

            Work example based on Screech Owls:

Age

Sx

Lx

Bx

LxBx

0

0.305

1.000

0

0.000

1

0.594

0.305

1.04

0.317

2

0.632

0.181

1.3

0.236

3

0.667

0.114

1.3

0.149

4

0.75

0.076

1.3

0.099

5

0.75

0.057

1.3

0.074

6

0.75

0.043

1.3

0.056

7

0.75

0.032

1.3

0.042

 

 

 

 

0.973

 

              Varies greatly among individuals

                         a few females contribute most young to next generation

                                     Screech Owls

                                     Albatross

                                     European Sparrowhawk

                                     (see review by Ian Newton)

IV.     Annual survival

              varies 30% - 95%

                         over time

                         between sexes and species

                         between regions

             trends

                         large>small

                         seabirds>landbirds

                         tropical>temperate/arctic

                         fledgling half that of adults

                         males>females

                                     not well understood

                                     leads to biased sex ratio

                                     supports notion of cost of reproduction

             best data from Sparrowhawk nests in Wytham Woods

                        nearly 1000 rings from banded (ringed) tits found in nest/yr

                        18-34% of juvenile Great Tits

                        18-24% of juvenile Blue Tits

                         condition of females

                        Adults much higher –

1.      Herring Gulls: S1 60%, S>1= 90%

2.      Great Tits: S1 20%, S>1 48%

             Longevity

                        small birds 2-5 yrs

                                     but tropical species longer

                                     records 10-20 yrs

                        Adelie Penguins average 20 yrs

                        34 yr-old Frigatebird

                        36 yr-old Eurasian Flycatcher

                        Royal Albatross in New Zealand at least 58 yrs

                         Captive birds longer - parrots up to 80 yrs.

            Sources of mortality:

                        Not well documented

                        Starvation, disease, predation, climate (2000 winter freeze killed a lot of kinglets in E. NC

                        Some data for human-induced mortality in the 70s:

                                    270 million killed (but <2% OF 10-20 billion birds in continental US)

                                    hunting – 270 MM

                                    Pest control – 2 MM

                                    Road kills – 57 MM

                                    TV towers – 1.2 MM

                                    Windows – 80 MM

                        90s data – 200 MM killed by domestic cats!                                                              

                        Young have two phases of mortality

                                    Clumsy phase just after fledging – predators

                                    Starvation after adult provisioning ends

V.     Fecundity

 

            redefine = # young successfully raised

                        annual vs. lifetime

                        annual most affected by conditions that year

                                    # nests/year

                                    experience of female

                        lifetime

                                    age at first reproduction

                                    lifespan

            what affects it?

                        Multiple broods

                                     more common in tropics

                                                 breeding season longer

                                                 more predation

                                                 6 clutches/yr not uncommon

                                     longer between attempts in tropics

                                                 food limitation?

                                                 more extended parental care

                                     not possible with extended parental care

                                     can be overlapping (Rock Doves) -Barn Owls?

                        Nesting success

                                     > away from tropics

                                     > in hole nesters

                                     > in large species “with hardy young”

                                     causes:

                                                 predation

                                                 starvation      

                                                 desertion

                                                 hatching failure

                                                 weather

                                                 brood parasites

                                                 nest-site competition

                                                 ectoparasites

                                                 disease

                        Clutch size - the 64K question to students of life history

                                     heritable

                                     nutritional limits on females for precocial species

                                     feeding abilities for altricial

                                     range 1-20

                                                 varies in some species

                                                 fixed in

                                                             Pelecaniformes (not so!) 1 egg

                                                             Procellariiformes 1 egg

                                                             hummers and doves = always 2

                        Age and experience

                        Delayed breeding

                                     most breed at 1 yr, but some 2,3, even 8-12 yrs - why?

                                     must be cost of early breeding

                                                 Good figures for Adelie Penguins

                                                             survivorship breeders 61%  non 78%

                                                             75% 3 yr olds die first attempt

                                                             this declines to 10% of 11-yr olds

                                                             birds that did breed in 3rd yr do better subsequently than those that didn’t

                                     because experience needed

                                     male passerines don’t always attain breeding plumage                                             in 1st yr - 31/105 dimorphic NA passerines

                                                 e.g.

                                                             Red-winged Blackbirds

                                                             Northern Orioles

                                                             Scarlet Tanagers

                                                             American Redstarts

                                                 often can and do breed-e.g. American Redstarts

                                                             avoid hassles with adult males

                                                             reduced predation?

                                                             substandard territories

 

VI.    Evolution of clutch size

             Lack’s food limitation hypothesis -

                        max number the parents can feed and raise - supported by clutch manipulation studies - show overhead-Fig 20-7

                        Empirical evidence shows latitudinal increase in

                                     many passerines

                                     owls

                                     hawks

                                     herons

                                     terns

                                     gallinules

                                     some fowl

                                     some grebes

                         Lack says day length a factor

                                     which group above doesn’t this make sense for?

                                     weaknesses

                                                 observed variation across longitude

                                                 islands < mainland

                                                 high alt > low (only in temp. zone)

                                                 owls

                                                 some birds have been shown to be able to raise more young in clutch enhancement studies

              Trade-off hypothesis

                         seems to work for larger species - increased clutch size reduces survivorship

                         not for some smaller species

              Predation

                         longer to lay large clutch - increase exposure

                         larger broods more conspicuous

                         better to risk fewer eggs/attempt in predator rich environment

                         ability to defend and feed young fledged may be limiting factor

              Seasonality

                         population regulated in non-breeding season

                         resources abundant in breeding season

                         surplus -> young

              Murray’s theory

                         females minimize clutch size to level of replacement

                                     increases survivorship

                                     fits empirical evidence very well

              Brood reduction

                         insurance against bad years

                                     lay eggs of different quality

                                     siblicide-Cain & Abel - opportunity for conservation?

                                     begin incubation with last egg = unequal feeding

                                                 reduces demand even in good years

                                                 balances sex ratio in RWBlackbirds

                                                             young females raise fewer males

                                                                         males need more food

                                                                        young moms less efficient providers

                                                             old females produce more males for unknown reasons

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